Ambiguous Job Numbers, Clear Retail Patterns

By Lee Egerstrom, Economic Development Fellow, December 16, 2011 at 2:00 pm

Minnesota’s unemployment numbers have been steadily falling. Yet at 5.9%, well below the nation’s 8.6%, November’s rate seems too good to be true, especially considering two months of heavy job losses:

State employers eliminated 13,700 jobs in November, and October figures were revised to reflect an additional 1,200 jobs lost during that month. The state has lost 22,900 jobs over the past three months, even while the unemployment rate was falling from 7.2 percent to 5.9 percent during that period, according to Minnesota Department of Employment of Economic Development’s (DEED) December 15th news release.

DEED points to a number of factors that could be skewing the results, such as sampling errors in the separate surveys, unemployed workers starting their own operations, and people giving up looking for work.

Through the year, several key industries have bolstered Minnesota employment, including health care, business services, hospitality, trade, transportation and utilities, and manufacturing. Deep public employment cuts have held job growth back better job growth.

Perhaps the choppy holiday retail picture provides the best perspective on what’s happening with the economy.

Around Thanksgiving, people did a lot of early buying, showing signs that the economy was improving. Then, stories started surfacing that folks were returning big-ticket items, such as electronics. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that people were putting off normal household purchases and shifting those dollars to holiday items.

Through all of these ambiguous economic numbers something becomes clear: Congress must not let targeted middle-class tax relief or extended unemployment benefits expire at year’s end. To do so would derail the progress Minnesota and the national economies have made.

Posted in Economic Development | Related Topics: Economic Growth  Economic Recovery  Unemployment